The S&P BSE Sensex ended up 28 points at 25,844 and the Nifty50 ended flat at 7,915.
The S&P BSE Sensex ended up 129 points at 26,843 and the Nifty50 ended up 39 points at 8,220.
Despite gold prices hitting record highs, analysts aren't gung-ho about the outlook for gold financiers Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance. This, they said, was due to intense competition from banks, coupled with stagnating loan books and likely pressure on margins.
'The minimum holding period for equities should be three years.' 'Try goal-based investing.' 'Link your equity portfolios to specific goals such as retirement, purchase of a house or car...'
The relentless rally in small- and mid-cap stocks continues as large-caps show signs of fatigue. In July, the Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 8.1 per cent, extending its year-to-date (YTD) gains to 48.5 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 added 3.1 per cent, taking its YTD rise to 33.5 per cent. On the other hand, the Nifty50 remained unchanged for the month, with YTD gains of 12.7 per cent.
Thus far in FY21, BSE, NSE have rallied 70 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively.
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
Auto Expo 2023 may not trigger a fresh rally in automobile stocks, say analysts, as this year's edition lacks participation from major listed players. It is also owing to the focus on electric vehicles (EVs), a segment where four-wheelers have minuscule market share. "In the passenger vehicles (PV) segment, Maruti Suzuki India and Tata Motors are the only listed players.
Mid- and small-cap indices have outperformed the frontline benchmarks - the S&P BSE Sensex (up around 10 per cent) and the Nifty50 (13 per cent) - in the first half of calendar year 2021 (H1-CY21) by rallying 26 per cent and 39 per cent, respectively. The trend, analysts believe, is likely to continue in H2-CY21 as well. The outperformance in H1-CY21 comes on the back of improved earnings and strong inflows from the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in Indian equities. However, good monsoon so far, gradual opening up of the economy and the pick-up in the pace of vaccination provides support to the market.
Investors seem to be shying away from stocks of companies in the 'digital' space with most counters that comprise the Nifty India Digital index giving negative returns over the past year. The index tracks the performance of a portfolio of stocks that broadly represent the 'digital theme' within basic industries, such as software, e-commerce, IT-enabled services, industrial electronics, and telecom services. The fall in some of these stocks over the past year has been steep; the sharpest decline of around 60 per cent was seen in shares of PB Fintech (parent company of Policybazaar).
Since infrastructure projects have long gestation periods, investors need to enter them with a long horizon of at least 10 years.
'Whenever markets rally, the IPO pricing gets aligned to the prevailing market conditions.'
The India Meteorological Department on Tuesday said the monsoon this year is expected to be 'above normal.'
A sharp rally in domestic stocks from June lows has once again rendered Indian markets expensive to their emerging-market (EM) peers. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the Nifty50 Index is around 20.6x - 82 per cent higher than 11.3 per cent for the MSCI EM Index. India's valuation premium has hit a five-month high. This is on the back of sharp outperformance to EM and global peers from June lows and also due to earnings downgrades, following the April-June quarter of 2022-23 earnings.
'The news about the new virus strain in the UK provided them with an opportunity to take money off the table.'
Smaller stocks continue to shine at the bourses. The BSE MidCap index is up 18 per cent since the beginning of January this year against a 5 per cent rise in the Sensex during the period. With the current rally, the mid-cap index has doubled in value since the end of March 2020 against a 70 per cent rally in the Sensex during the period. On Tuesday, the mid-cap index closed at 21,232, as compared to 17,941 at the end of December 2020. In the same period, the benchmark index moved from 47,751 to 50,193.
'The recent correction in indices has made the markets cheaper to invest for the long term.'
One of the biggest advantages of index funds and ETFs is their low cost, points out Sarbajeet K Sen.
However, experts caution that investors should not expect the big returns they got from the sector between March and September 2020.
Broader markers outperformed their larger peers.
Nifty ends above 8,600; Tata Motors, RIL top leaders
The current up move, according to analysts, closely resembles the rally post the global financial crisis in 2008-09, not just in quantum and speed, but also the way small-and mid-cap indices outperformed large-cap peers.
Initial public offerings (IPOs) have attracted droves of retail investors to the stock market in CY22. But these applicants have lost money on 40 per cent of the fresh issues this year - a trend that may impact sentiment towards maiden share sales during the remaining part of the year. Of the 14 companies that have listed this year, five have closed below their issue price.
What worked for the markets was favourable global investor sentiment and encouraging flows into the emerging markets following stimulus measures taken by central banks.
Despite the large economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the markets have recovered sharply even though the performance among individual stocks has been quite polarised.
All nine Adani stocks saw a rise in their share price in H1FY23, ranging from 6.1% in case of Adani Ports to 102% in case of Adani Power.
India's equity markets are on a roller-coaster ride, after delivering spectacular returns for two consecutive years - in 2020 and 2021. The benchmark National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) Nifty50 is down 1.5 per cent in the first nine months of the current calendar year 2022 (CY22) as foreign portfolio investors sold Indian stocks due to rising bond yields in the US and across global markets, including India. The sell-off in the Indian equity markets has, however, not been broad-based and largely limited to sectors facing earnings headwinds from rising interest rates, lower commodity and energy prices, and likely economic recession in advanced economies.
The S&P BSE 500 index, which accounts for 94% market capitalisation of BSE listed companies, has gained 45% from its March 24 low. However, out of the BSE 500 index stocks, 225 have underperformed the index by gaining less than the broader index during this period.
S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices gained 2% and 1.6% respectively
sharper-than-expected economic recovery back home, analysts say, can fuel a further rally in domestic cyclicals, industrials, and financials as global central banks continue with their easy money policy.
'Higher than expected inflation in the US or the European Union, faster than expected tightening by the major central banks, break out of a war in Europe, and withdrawal of portfolio equities from the emerging markets are factors which can result in equity market corrections.'
Shares of small-cap companies have been on a roll with the S&P BSE Small-Cap index hitting a new high in intra-day deals on Thursday. The rally has been fueled by an up move in stocks of chemicals, cement, graphite electrode makers, pharmaceuticals and information technology (IT) shares. In the past two weeks, since March 25, the index has outperformed the market by gaining 7.3 per cent. In comparison, the S&P BSE Midcap index was up 6.1 per cent, while the S&P BSE Sensex gained 3.6 per cent during the same period.
Of these 26, Bajaj Finance, Associated Alcohols and Breweries, Garware Technologies, Filatex India, Tasty Bite Eatables, Aarti Industries and GMM Pfaudler saw an over 10-fold surge in price since 2014.
'The probability of this being a suckers' rally, where all kinds of beaten down stocks have begun to rally sharply, should be a time to be cautious and circumspect.'
Even when large businesses said they were flying blind in mid-2020, the markets rallied and an incredible business boom followed. This is not to say that the markets will continue to rally and there is nothing to worry about, observes Debashis Basu.
Investor wealth has jumped by over Rs 12.31 lakh crore in three days, taking the market capitalisation of all BSE-listed companies to a record Rs 198.43 lakh crore on Wednesday as equities continued their Budget-driven rally. The BSE benchmark Sensex closed above the historic 50,000 mark for the first time ever on Wednesday. The 30-share benchmark closed with a gain of 458.03 points or 0.92 per cent at 50,255.75. During the day, it zoomed 728.67 points to its lifetime high of 50,526.39. In three trading days, the benchmark has gained 3,969.98 points or 8.57 per cent.
'It will be best for investors to have a systematic investment plan in mid-cap and small-cap funds with a three-/five-year horizon.'
Indian companies' market capitalization has grown at the fastest pace last year among major economies despite contraction in GDP, economists from SBI said, flagging the risks to financial stability it poses. Further, retail investors have shown higher interest in markets and their numbers have increased by 1.42 crore in FY21 and another 44 lakh in April and May, they said in a note, wondering if this will be a lasting behavioural change or is transitory. The economists at the country's largest lender attributed the growth in equity markets to lower returns on other financial instruments amid a low rates regime, increase in global liquidity, and even a tendency to spend more time at home because of mobility restrictions which led many to trade more.
Polarisation and the increase in index weight of a few a stocks have weighed on performance. The worst performers include Nippon India Large Cap and HDFC Top 100 (2.6 per cent).
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