Bank shares were the top gainer in early trades with Bank of Baroda up over 4%.
Earnings growth, attractive valuations and change in FPI flows from negative to positive over the next 12 months are some of the key triggers for an upside. "A poor monsoon, high inflation and further rate hike are some of the key risks
Investors indulged in buying beaten down blue chips at lower and attractive levels.
Stocks of new-age companies have seen a mixed performance thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). While those of One97 Communications (parent company of Paytm), PB Fintech and Zomato have surged up to 63 per cent year-to-date (YTD), FSN e-commerce, the parent company of Nykaa, however, has dropped 14 per cent YTD. By comparison, Nifty50 and Nifty 500 indices have advanced 7 per cent and 8.7 per cent, respectively, during the period, ACE Equity data show.
Stock market investors are expecting a balanced Budget with a focus on job creation, increased spending on infrastructure, reigning in the deficit, and bringing the economy back on track, experts said on Wednesday. Stock markets have been subdued in the run-up to the Union Budget with BSE's benchmark Sensex is almost flat so far this month. Even the corporate earning season failed to excite the markets, while some indices like IT and bankex have seen some positive movements.
The gap between the highs and the lows in April for the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex was just 4.1 per cent - the narrowest since July 2021 and nearly half its three-year average. The absence of major positive triggers, sectoral rotation, and cautiousness due to earnings and economic uncertainty have kept a tight leash on the markets, observe experts. Remarkably enough, during the 17 trading sessions in April, the Sensex didn't even log an advance or a decline of more than 1 per cent.
Investors are keenly awaiting the announcement of the macroeconomic data-IIP and CPI due on Tuesday.
Retail investors now own a bigger slice of small-cap companies than a couple of years earlier, attributable to their growing conviction in mutual fund (MF) schemes focused on this space. Data from Capitaline shows MFs' average holding in the National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 250 rising to 8.67 per cent, from 7.67 per cent in the past two financial years, with the number of companies with over 20 per cent MF holdings, rising from 15 to 24. At the end of May, the top five small-cap firms with the highest MF holdings were Carborundum Universal, Blue Star, Cyient, Gujarat State Petronet, and Cholamandalam Finance.
Now that bank FD rates have gone up and most BAFs haven't delivered good returns, these investors are likely to be moving back to FDs, observed a senior MF distributor. The performance of BAFs in the past year has been mixed.
Pharma shares extended losses after the government's ban on combination drugs.
The market's sensitivity to the US Fed's balance sheet changes makes it vulnerable to the possible tapering of the bond buying programme and the resulting stagnation or even shrinkage in the balance sheet.
The S&P BSE Sensex ended up 28 points at 25,844 and the Nifty50 ended flat at 7,915.
With the merger between HDFC Bank and HDFC Ltd complete, analysts said the next key monitorable for the Street would be successful resolution of merger-related hiccups, including employee-related churn and roll out of complete banking services across branches. At the bourses, they expect the stock to perform in-line with the benchmark indices in the near-term. "There's usually an initial period of consolidation after a merger as the entities work towards integration.
The S&P BSE Sensex ended up 129 points at 26,843 and the Nifty50 ended up 39 points at 8,220.
Despite gold prices hitting record highs, analysts aren't gung-ho about the outlook for gold financiers Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance. This, they said, was due to intense competition from banks, coupled with stagnating loan books and likely pressure on margins.
'The minimum holding period for equities should be three years.' 'Try goal-based investing.' 'Link your equity portfolios to specific goals such as retirement, purchase of a house or car...'
Thus far in FY21, BSE, NSE have rallied 70 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively.
The relentless rally in small- and mid-cap stocks continues as large-caps show signs of fatigue. In July, the Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 8.1 per cent, extending its year-to-date (YTD) gains to 48.5 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 added 3.1 per cent, taking its YTD rise to 33.5 per cent. On the other hand, the Nifty50 remained unchanged for the month, with YTD gains of 12.7 per cent.
Mid- and small-cap indices have outperformed the frontline benchmarks - the S&P BSE Sensex (up around 10 per cent) and the Nifty50 (13 per cent) - in the first half of calendar year 2021 (H1-CY21) by rallying 26 per cent and 39 per cent, respectively. The trend, analysts believe, is likely to continue in H2-CY21 as well. The outperformance in H1-CY21 comes on the back of improved earnings and strong inflows from the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in Indian equities. However, good monsoon so far, gradual opening up of the economy and the pick-up in the pace of vaccination provides support to the market.
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
Auto Expo 2023 may not trigger a fresh rally in automobile stocks, say analysts, as this year's edition lacks participation from major listed players. It is also owing to the focus on electric vehicles (EVs), a segment where four-wheelers have minuscule market share. "In the passenger vehicles (PV) segment, Maruti Suzuki India and Tata Motors are the only listed players.
The India Meteorological Department on Tuesday said the monsoon this year is expected to be 'above normal.'
'Whenever markets rally, the IPO pricing gets aligned to the prevailing market conditions.'
Investors seem to be shying away from stocks of companies in the 'digital' space with most counters that comprise the Nifty India Digital index giving negative returns over the past year. The index tracks the performance of a portfolio of stocks that broadly represent the 'digital theme' within basic industries, such as software, e-commerce, IT-enabled services, industrial electronics, and telecom services. The fall in some of these stocks over the past year has been steep; the sharpest decline of around 60 per cent was seen in shares of PB Fintech (parent company of Policybazaar).
Since infrastructure projects have long gestation periods, investors need to enter them with a long horizon of at least 10 years.
'The news about the new virus strain in the UK provided them with an opportunity to take money off the table.'
A sharp rally in domestic stocks from June lows has once again rendered Indian markets expensive to their emerging-market (EM) peers. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the Nifty50 Index is around 20.6x - 82 per cent higher than 11.3 per cent for the MSCI EM Index. India's valuation premium has hit a five-month high. This is on the back of sharp outperformance to EM and global peers from June lows and also due to earnings downgrades, following the April-June quarter of 2022-23 earnings.
Smaller stocks continue to shine at the bourses. The BSE MidCap index is up 18 per cent since the beginning of January this year against a 5 per cent rise in the Sensex during the period. With the current rally, the mid-cap index has doubled in value since the end of March 2020 against a 70 per cent rally in the Sensex during the period. On Tuesday, the mid-cap index closed at 21,232, as compared to 17,941 at the end of December 2020. In the same period, the benchmark index moved from 47,751 to 50,193.
One of the biggest advantages of index funds and ETFs is their low cost, points out Sarbajeet K Sen.
However, experts caution that investors should not expect the big returns they got from the sector between March and September 2020.
'The recent correction in indices has made the markets cheaper to invest for the long term.'
Broader markers outperformed their larger peers.
Nifty ends above 8,600; Tata Motors, RIL top leaders
The current up move, according to analysts, closely resembles the rally post the global financial crisis in 2008-09, not just in quantum and speed, but also the way small-and mid-cap indices outperformed large-cap peers.
What worked for the markets was favourable global investor sentiment and encouraging flows into the emerging markets following stimulus measures taken by central banks.
Initial public offerings (IPOs) have attracted droves of retail investors to the stock market in CY22. But these applicants have lost money on 40 per cent of the fresh issues this year - a trend that may impact sentiment towards maiden share sales during the remaining part of the year. Of the 14 companies that have listed this year, five have closed below their issue price.
Despite the large economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the markets have recovered sharply even though the performance among individual stocks has been quite polarised.
The S&P BSE 500 index, which accounts for 94% market capitalisation of BSE listed companies, has gained 45% from its March 24 low. However, out of the BSE 500 index stocks, 225 have underperformed the index by gaining less than the broader index during this period.
All nine Adani stocks saw a rise in their share price in H1FY23, ranging from 6.1% in case of Adani Ports to 102% in case of Adani Power.
S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices gained 2% and 1.6% respectively
